The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts a growth rate of 3.3%, and the United Nations Trade and Development Organization (UNCTAD) and the World Bank are relatively conservative, predicting growth rates of 2.7% and 2.6% respectively. Some analysts believe that if the global economy has been operating under the conditions of high inflation, high debt and high interest rates for a long time, then the current situation can be regarded as a soft landing. Looking ahead to 2025, there are many key factors that will have an important impact on the global economic recovery.

The trend of growth differentiation continues, and developing economies should play a greater role in global economic growth. In 2024, the growth of developed economies and developing economies diverged. Among developed economies, the United States took advantage of the dollar's dominant position to borrow heavily and boost economic growth, while the economies of its allies such as Europe and Japan were almost stagnant, and Germany was even on the verge of recession. At the same time, from Asia, Africa to South America, many developing economies have shown resilience in dealing with external shocks in this round of the dollar cycle, which is significantly better than during the Asian financial crisis and the international financial crisis. In addition, in 2025, industrial production in emerging market economies represented by Asia remains stable, while the manufacturing industry in developed economies such as the United States, Europe, and Japan has not yet declined, and the trend of growth differentiation will continue.

Global trade continues to recover, but more proactive measures are needed to address growing protectionism.Amid growing protectionism and continued interest rate cuts by central banks in developed economies, we also need to keep a close eye on the resurgence of inflation.

In addition, technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and energy and environmental issues will also be important factors affecting world economic growth in 2025. At present, artificial intelligence is expected to promote long-term growth of the global economy by improving overall productivity. 

At the same time, the growth rate of energy demand has slowed down, the downward pressure on prices has increased, and climate change and environmental protection continue to have an impact on the global economy. Countries need to increase investment in science and technology, promote industrial upgrading and transformation to adapt to the new trend of global economic development, and jointly promote green and low-carbon development to achieve sustainable economic, social and environmental development.  At present, the international situation is changing and chaotic, and global challenges are emerging in an endless stream, which tests the response and choices of various countries. If the global economy wants to continue to maintain steady growth, it still depends on strengthening cooperation among countries. Only by strengthening international policy coordination and improving the global governance structure can we jointly respond to global challenges and achieve more balanced and sustainable development.